Rapport et étude sur la Chine
China Analysis - Les Nouvelles de Chine #30
Auteurs:
Publication: Sept/Oct 2010

The only publication in Europe to originate exclusively from Chinese sources, China Analysis – Les Nouvelles de Chine presents the viewpoints of leading figures in the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan on the domestic politics and economy of China, strategic questions in Asia, Taiwanese political life and international affairs. Its writers, all experts from a variety of Chinese disciplines, offer their critical analyses and viewpoints to create truly original content.

This autumn issue is published after the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to dissident Liu Xiaobo on 8 October. The announcement of this decision emphasised how Chinese foreign policy has hardened since the beginning of 2010, with the country imposing sanctions on Norway, despite the fact that the Norwegian government exercises no control over the Nobel Committee. No contradictory viewpoint has appeared in the Chinese press, which has merely and endlessly repeated the hardline sovereignist position (particularly in its English language versions), describing the Nobel Committee vote as a “blasphemous” attack on the Chinese judicial system. However, as a public figure, Lu Xiaobo himself is not often attacked: the press mainly refers to statements from the dissident from more than twenty years ago, in which he spoke of the “Western needs” of Chinese culture, in a bid to discredit him.


Indeed, the Chinese press addresses human rights from a specifically legal standpoint. The analysis of the scope of a penal code reform to limit the use of the death penalty shows that the authorised reflection focuses on aligning the law with current practices and on cosmetic reforms. In contrast, a reduction in charges, particularly for economic crimes and offences, had been considered but was ultimately rejected.


This issue is devoted to the latest developments in Taiwan’s cross-strait relations. The rapid growth of trade between Taiwan and China, which began in May 2008 after the Kuomintang’s return to power, reached a peak last June with the signing of an Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement (ECFA), similar to a free trade agreement although limited to certain categories of products and designed to benefit the Taiwanese economy. However, in the second half of 2010, this process began to slow down. With two years to go before major political events – the 18th Congress of the Communist Party and the presidential elections in Taiwan – caution is required. However, there are four questions regarding relations between the two shores which need to be addressed: the expansion of the number of economic sectors included in the ECFA, the adoption of confidence-building measures on a military level, the negotiations by Taipei of free trade agreements with its trading partners and its substantial involvement in the UN’s technical bodies and the signing of a political agreement.


However, Ma Ying-jeou must be strategic and cannot take the risk of appearing too “unificationist” in the eyes of an electorate which supports the status quo. Across the South China Sea, Beijing is hesitant. A more liberal approach to Taiwan's international space would improve China's image but would risk Beijing being confronted with a fait-accompli situation in the event of the separatists’ return to power. We must therefore expect negotiations of little political value, focusing on economic and commercial exchanges so as to complete the ECFA without creating waves in Taiwanese public opinion. The biggest unknown factor is the Progressive Democratic Party’s electoral strategy. The reform of its program is incomplete and unclear. Torn between its radical separatist electorate and the moderate wing which dominates its leadership, its position on relations between the two nations will be key during the presidential elections of 2012.


This issue also focuses on monetary and financial issues, which dominate China's relations with Western countries, and which could provide it with a new area for strategic co-operation with France and the European Union.


Domestic socio-economic affairs are also featured. Wang Xiaolu's recent study on “grey income”, which is said to account for nearly 20% of China's GDP, cannot be ignored: despite its methodological flaws, it highlights economic and social phenomena with real political impact, particularly because of their direct link to the sensitive subject of rising property prices. Lastly, the section on shifting attitudes focuses on social security reform in terms of the political decision-making process, with an article highlighting competition between different administrative entities within the Chinese government. This has had the effect of delaying a long-awaited reform, intended to be a key legacy of Hu Jintao's tenure.
 

François Godement et Mathieu Duchâtel