In 2024, the number of armed conflicts reached a record high, highlighting the importance of discussions like those held at Sciences Po Le Havre on February 13th, in partnership with the Normandy Region as part of its Normandy for Peace initiative. This conference aimed to analyze the main risk factors and propose solutions for better conflict management.
The assessment made by the magazine Diplomatie in its special edition on the progress and emergence of conflicts in the world is grim. The facts are clear, the numbers speak for themselves: 59 major conflicts, a record since World War II. The world is therefore going through a period of increasing tensions marked by a multiplication of conflicts and a weakening of democracies.
The international situation has greatly deteriorated over the past two years due to various factors. The principles of international relations have also changed significantly. The law of the strongest is resurfacing, giving way to irrationality on the international stage. Multilateralism is thus weakened, and peace negotiations are becoming increasingly rare. Whereas twenty or thirty years ago, 35 to 50% of conflicts were resolved through diplomacy, this figure has now fallen below 10%. Many conflicts persist without any visible resolution in the short or medium term.
Paul Vallet, historian, political scientist, and associate researcher at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, observes a worrying trend: the weakening of democracies. These are not only facing external threats. Among the approximately twenty-seven full democracies, many are indeed suffering from institutional dysfunctions and increasing political tensions.
Serge Stroobants, Director of Europe at the Institute for Economics and Peace, emphasized during these discussions the importance of analyzing conflict risks using eleven indicators from the Normandy Index to better decipher and respond to them. He also highlighted the gap between state and international decisions and the reality of conflicts.
Global peace has been declining for fifteen to twenty years now, and states do not seem ready to make peace. A notion that continues to evolve but struggles to be implemented sustainably.
Despite an uncertain future, Laurent Bonnefoy, political scientist and researcher at the CNRS affiliated with the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po, highlighted the glimmers of hope emerging, driven by youth, citizen movements, and new dynamics in international law.
During the conference, the speakers were able to address the state of multilateralism, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the role of the European Union in the emerging world.
