The three experts speaking alongside Paul Stares, director of the Center of Preventive Action, Council on Foreign Relations, all seem to agree that the future doesn’t look bright. Climate change and the disruption which ensues are major sources of conflict in Africa, Asia and even the USA. Kabiné Komara, the former Prime Minister of Guinea, reminds the audience that with only 7% of water being drinkable, this vital commodity will continue to cause problems. “In West Africa, we’ve experienced climate change since the late 1970s,” he says. “One of the many difficulties is related to the transnational river between Benin and Niger and between Burkina Faso and Ghana, in terms of these countries’ shared waters. In times of drought, conflicts erupt between nomadic populations in search of water and farmers, leading to a significant number of deaths.”

States' vulnerability 

Six countries are particularly vulnerable: Somalia, Congo, Chad, Sudan, Afghanistan and Syria. “Between 2006 and 2009, Syria experienced its worst drought in 900 years,” explains Nancy Lindborg, president of the United States Institute of Peace. "99% of its farms were affected and farmers settled in huge numbers near cities, creating stress and tensions with local residents. This also led to the state being seen as illegitimate by the country’s population. Two years later, the tragedy began and we’ve all seen its devastating effects. ISIS pumped the water from the wells and destroyed the environment.”

Increased risks

Entire areas, such as the Marshall Islands, may disappear with rising sea levels. Cyclones intensification and tropical storms regularly devastate the Philippines and the Fiji islands. Heat waves are having an effect on agriculture and causing significant shifts in fishery resources. “All this disruption leads to security problems while temperatures are only 1.1°C higher than the industrial age in terms of global warming,” says Nicolas Regaud, special advisor for the Indo-Pacific within the International Relations and Strategy branch of the French Ministry of the Armed Forces. “This disruption increases risks and can exacerbate tensions by destroying the economy and food resources.” 

What options are there?

Anticipation, particularly when it comes to protecting essential infrastructure, seems essential “to be able to ensure intervention and to avoid being trapped in the event of a disaster,” Nicolas Regaud concludes. "Cooperation between states also helps to protect shared resources". “In Nigeria, civil society is coming together to identify specific solutions to deal with conflicts and their consequences,” Nancy Lindborg mentions. Support for research and scientific breakthroughs are another course of action even though “today, the race for profit is more important than the race to protect and preserve,” Kabiné Komara says sadly. “However, we must not remain passive, particularly in the face of climate sceptics.”