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Jakkie Cilliers, Chairperson of the Board and Head of African Futures and Innovations of the Institute for Security Studies, reveals his forecasts for the future of Africa, while his new book « Africa First ! Igniting a Growth Revolution » has just been published.


How much can we trust forecasts?

Forecasts are not predictions, we cannot be completely sure of anything. However, we are leading a serious academic work, using computer plateforms hosted by the University of Denver to calculate datas.


What is the general forecast regarding peace in Africa ?

In the short run, it is difficult to predict it becose there are several types of conflicts. The increasing level of measured violence, in particular with the increase of protest movements, must be questioned and compared to different datas, as the growing population. 
In the long run, we see that the situation is more stable over time, with less conflicts. 


What are for you the main peace factors in Africa ?

The governments  are a determinant factor concerning conflicts, and peace. They generate lots of consequences, for example translating to poverty or prosperity. Overall, the actual governments are becoming more democtratic and have a better justice. Of course this general picture shows differences between countries.  


Are there some areas to focus on ?

The Sahel really is important. Terrorism takes advantage of poor governments and it also is an area very impacted by the effects of global warming. This region may be a source of war or peace in the future.

Report from Stellah Kwasi, Jakkie Cilliers, Zachary Donnenfeld, Lily Welborn and Ibrahim Maïga published by the Institute for Security Studies. Read online


  • Jakkie Cilliers published "Africa first! Igniting a growth revolution" with scenarios on future of Africa until 2040.
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